Forecast of steel price next week
The main varieties of steel this week are compared with those last week.LearnpokerThe number of rising varieties decreased significantly, while that of falling varieties increased significantly. The price of iron ore in the raw material market fell by 5 yuan, the price of coke rose by 100 yuan, the price of scrap rose by 20-30 yuan, and the price of billet fell by 10 yuan.
1. The influencing factors of steel market are as follows
The national operating rate of construction machinery in January and March is 55.Learnpoker.52%
In the first quarter of this year, the operating rate of construction machinery in China accelerated, and hoisting equipment and excavation equipment remained high as a whole. The operating rate of construction machinery in China was 55% in March.Learnpoker.52%, compared with January and February, the operating rate has increased significantly. (Sina Finance)
2. Car trade-in subsidy policy has come.
Fuel passenger vehicles with emission standards of three or less in the scrapped country or registered before April 30, 2018LearnpokerNew energy passenger cars and individual consumers who buy new passenger cars that meet the energy-saving requirements can enjoy an one-time quota subsidy. (Guangming Network)
3. Us inflation rose moderately in March. The Federal Reserve is not expected to cut interest rates until September.
The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged next week. Financial markets initially expected the Fed to cut interest rates for the first time in March, but then postponed the rate cut to June and now to September as job market and inflation data continue to rise unexpectedly this year. (Sina Finance)
II. Spot market
Rebar this week: narrow upstream
Before the festival, steel mills are willing to increase prices, but the actual market demand is still low, and the price of steel mills is relatively weak. However, Shuangjiao continues to strengthen, iron ore high shock, short-term callback space is not large, rebar is expected to run steadily next week.
Hot Volume of the week: narrow downgrade
The raw material price is still high, the cost end support is strong, and the spot price still has support. However, in the last two days before the festival, the downstream replenishment of the plate is coming to an end, and the risk aversion mood on the disk increases, and the hot volume is expected to decline slightly next week.
Medium board this week: the overall strength is strong.
At present, high inventory is still an important factor to restrain the plate price. On the demand side, the sheet meter needs to decline, the downstream replenishment is more cautious, the pre-festival stock action is not obvious, restrain the rebound rhythm and height, and the plate is expected to fall slightly next week.
This week's strip: narrow adjustment
From the industrial data, the total inventory of strip steel is high, the demand and output are slightly reduced, but the sales pressure is greater. In addition, the price of the plate fluctuates frequently, and the market is cautious in trading. It is expected that the strip steel will run steadily and weakly next week.
This week's profile: first weak and then strong
At present, the actual demand is still insufficient, most of them are mutual replenishment among traders, and the transaction is still speculative or low-cost resource dumping operation. Coupled with the lack of billet support, the follow-up trend is not good, the profile is expected to run steadily next week.
This week's pipe: the main stable tune
This week, the strip steel is reduced by 10 yuan to 3680 yuan, and the tube factory quotes-10-20 yuan. The factory warehouse is still at an all-time low, but the terminal transaction has declined slightly, and the pressure on the market to remove the warehouse is greater. It is expected that the pipe will run steadily and weakly next week.
III. Raw material market
Billet this week: a small increase
Recently, the downstream cost pressure has been alleviated to a certain extent, which is good for finished products, but at present, the overall inventory in the downstream plant is relatively high, replenishment or limited, coupled with disk shock adjustment, billet is expected to decline slightly next week.
Iron ore this week: slightly higher
Hot metal production rebounded from about 2.21 million tons to 2.2875 million tons in April, but it is still low from a year earlier, and the actual demand for iron ore is weak. At present, most of the market is dominated by funds, and the upside space is expected to be limited, and mineral prices are expected to run in shock next week.
Coke this week: strong operation
At present, the profits of steel enterprises have rebounded, the production enthusiasm has improved, the rigid demand for coke has increased, coupled with the gradual decline of coke inventory, the demand for replenishment is prominent, and the sales of coke enterprises are not under pressure for the time being. it is expected that coke will run steadily and strongly next week.
Scrap this week: stable, medium and strong
Next week, the arc furnace is expected to resume production, the demand is expected to increase, in addition, the cost of hot metal is rising, which is good for scrap. However, the disk concussion operation, transactions are declining, it is expected that there will be a small drop in space next week.
Pig iron this week: continue to raise
The third round of coke rally has landed one after another, iron ore is running at a high level, and raw material costs continue to increase, but downstream demand is depressed or pig iron prices continue to rise, and pig iron is expected to rise narrowly next week.
IV. Comprehensive point of view
This week, the market variety differentiation is obvious, raw materials are strong, finished products are more general, the current upward driving force of steel prices is still Shuangjiao and iron ore. Judging from the current market, there is no obvious direction for the time being. on the one hand, it is the factor of holidays, on the other hand, it is the risk aversion of capital and emotion, so it is not suitable to chase the rise and kill the fall in the short term. Next week, steel prices temporarily look at a slight correction, with a range of 10-30 yuan.
Decision recommendations: weak procurement of terminal demand, stable production of steel mills, steel prices or narrow weak fluctuations. It is suggested that steel traders should reduce their inventory and celebrate the festival easily. (for reference only, no investment advice)